PROFAR QUESTION UPDATE

BY: Richard W. Humphrey

Prior to Saturday’s game with Toronto, Ian Kinsler was activated from the disabled list. Infielder Leury Garcia, not Jurickson Profar, was optioned to AAA Round Rock to make room on the 25 man roster for Kinsler, who is in the Rangers’ Saturday lineup batting first and playing second base.

The original plan was for Kinsler to play three games on his minor league rehab assignment at AA Frisco. He was 0-8 in two games at Frisco, one at designated hitter and one at second base.

The move smacks of pushing the panic button by the Rangers. The team has scored just one run in the first two games of the ongoing four game series with the Jays. They have lost the three previous series and have currently lost a season high four games while falling two games behind Oakland in the West. Ranger management is obviously looking for a spark by activating Kinsler earlier than planned.

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THE PROFAR QUESTION

BY: Richard W. Humphrey

During Wednesday’s game against the Indians, the Rangers announced that Ian Kinsler had gone through a complete workout before the game that included taking ground balls, turning double plays and batting practice. After the workout, Ranger physician Keith Meister examined Kinsler and gave him medical clearance to undertake a minor league rehab assignment starting today. The plan is for Kinsler to DH on Thursday, and play second base on Friday and Saturday for AA Frisco in contemplation of being activated Sunday or Monday.

The news was somewhat unexpected as earlier reports had Kinsler being physically able to return no earlier than late next week and possibly not until the end of June. The return of Kinsler brings the Rangers to face the question – what to do with Jurickson Profar? Profar is regarded by many as the best prospect in minor league baseball. He has been with the Rangers for more than three weeks as Kinsler’s replacement and has done nothing to dissuade the thought. He has the talent, the poise, and the knowledge of the game to perform in the Majors right now.

There is no question that Kinsler will be welcomed back with open arms. Texas is 12-13 since Kinsler last started. As the number one batter in the Ranger batting order, he is sorely missed. Texas is simply not scoring runs in his absence. The highs in the month of June are 10 hits and six runs in a game, both accomplished just once. When the Rangers beat Detroit on May 16, the last game Kinsler started, they were in first place with a seven game lead over Oakland. When they woke up Thursday morning, they were in second place trailing the A’s by one game. They need him back.

All indications are that the Rangers are debating what to do with Profar when Kinsler returns. If he stays, he likely takes the back-up middle infielder roster spot held by Leury Garcia. For sure, Garcia has been disappointing in this role. His defense has been suspect, his base running disappointing, and he is hitting just .216 with no home runs and one RBI. Profar is clearly a better alternative. The question is really whether Profar would be better served playing every day at AAA.

One number that has been floated is 350 at-bats. That seems to be the pace of play at which it would be worth Profar’s while to stay with the Rangers. Is Ron Washington willing to commit that much playing time to Profar? If he is, the bulk of that playing time would come from Kinsler and Elvis Andrus. Is Washington willing to take away playing time from established veterans to make that much playing time available and what does a reduction of playing time do to those veterans?

There has been speculation of moving Kinsler to another position to accommodate Profar. Kinsler has stated that he does not want to do so this year, and certainly it would be best to decide on the switch in the off season to allow a full spring training to acclimate Kinsler to the new station. However, the Ranger batting order is full of holes right now. It would be a drastic move, but a switch now to the outfield would accommodate Profar and cure a problem area of the team. This is not likely to happen. It is simply not in Washington’s nature.

Another possibility is to send Profar to Round Rock and move him to the outfield. If the offensive situation doesn’t improve in Arlington, Profar could come back as an outfielder.

The old saying is that “baseball usually takes care of baseball questions”. Unless an injury arises, between now and Sunday or Monday when Kinsler is expected to be activated from the disabled list, the Rangers will be making the decision on Profar, not the baseball Gods. Profar himself has said that he expects to return to Round Rock. He hasn’t made it easy on the Rangers though. He’s hitting .292 with a .342 on-base percentage. He’s hit two home runs and driven in seven in 72 at-bats. It’s got to be difficult to cast out a quality hitter when the offense is struggling so much. Ranger fans will know the answer soon.

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A REMEMBRANCE

BY: Richard W. Humphrey

Kansas City was in Arlington this weekend, the Royals only trip to Texas this season. They arrived as one of the most disappointing teams in baseball over the first third of the season. The Royals have quietly been developing a terrific farm system in recent years. With players such as Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas having bloomed to be solid Major Leaguers, Kansas City traded top prospects for veteran pitching, and they fully expected to compete for the Central Division title and a playoff berth this season. Instead, they finished the weekend at 23-31 and have lost 10 of their last 12 games, after dropping two of three to the Rangers.

The culprit has largely been the offense, and in an effort to turn their fortunes around, they reassigned hitting coaches Jack Maloof and Andre David on Thursday and named George Brett the interim hitting coach. Brett’s familiar uniform #5 is retired, and he is in baseball’s Hall Of Fame. He’s undoubtedly the most noted Royals player ever, having played all 21 big league seasons with Kansas City.

It is apropos that Brett would start his new assignment in Arlington, as it is the site of his last game in the Majors. The date was October 3, 1993, and it was not only the last day in the big leagues for Brett, but also for fellow Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan. It was also the last game ever for Arlington Stadium, as Texas moved into the Ballpark in Arlington the following season. It was a pleasant overcast day. There was a festive atmosphere as the team recounted the history of the park. Brett and Ryan took the lineups to home plate for the pre-game meeting with the umpires.

The game plan was for Brett, who batted third that day, to play until he got a hit. In the ninth inning, Brett was still in the game, as he was 0-3 and scheduled to bat once more. Tom Henke was on the mound for Texas. All of the Royals’ players and coaches rose and stood in front of the dugout. There has always been suspicion that Henke threw a rather fat pitch to assist Brett, who hit a grounder up the middle. Manny Lee was the Rangers’ shortstop that day. When he broke to his left for the ball, he amazingly slipped slightly. It was enough of a delay that he was unable to reach the ball, which rolled into center field for a single.

The crowd roared, as they knew the only thing standing between Brett and election to baseball’s Hall of Fame was the mandatory five year waiting period. There was definitely a tear in Brett’s eye as he stood on first base hearing the roar of the appreciative crowd. His career was complete later that inning as he scored the last run of his career. The final totals were .305 batting average, 3,154 hits, 317 home runs, and 1,595 RBI’s, all of which are Royals franchise records.

As for his new position with the Royals, Brett says he will work for about a month as the interim hitting coach before deciding his future. He turned 60 just last week. He’s got three kids that are college age. Unlike a lot of former players, he’s not married to the game.

“I don’t know if I’ll be any good at it at all,” he told MLB.com’s Christian Carmona. “If we start winning and I see some progress, some success and I’m havinng fun, I’ll keep doing it. For how long? I don’t know.”

It’s hard to believe that almost 20 years have past since George Brett and Nolan Ryan played in the Majors. Before Sunday’s game between the Rangers and Royals, Brett and Ryan re-enacted taking the lineup cards to Sunday’s home plate umpire, Dale Scott. Kansas City won that day in 1993 by the score of 4-1. For Ranger fans, the loss didn’t matter. We all knew we’d seen the end of an historic career. We had the promise of a shiny new ballpark to look forward to. It was a great day.

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PITCHERS’ ABUSE

BY: Richard W. Humphrey

Texas beat Detroit Thursday night 10-4. It was a battle of titans as the Tigers led the Central Division, while Texas led the West. Texas led the American League in staff ERA, while Detroit was second. Detroit led the league in batting average and runs scored, while Texas was third in batting average, but led both Major Leagues in home runs. The pitching matchup on paper was one of the best of the season with Justin Verlander going for Detroit and Yu Darvish for Texas.

It was thus surprising then when neither pitcher threw to form early in the game. Texas took a 1-0 lead into the third inning, which proved to be truly historic. Detroit took the lead with three runs in the top half. The Rangers came back with seven in the bottom half, for a total of 10 runs scored in a single inning off two of the best pitchers in the game. All seven Ranger runs were charged to Verlander, who did not finish the inning. It was not only his shortest outing of the year, but the first time in his career that he surrendered seven runs in an inning. His ERA zoomed from 1.93 before the game to 3.17, as he got tagged with the loss to even his record at 4-4.

After seven innings, the Rangers led 10-4, and Darvish had thrown 115 pitches. It was indeed shocking to see Darvish come out of the dugout to start the eighth, and the move caused a media firestorm. Darvish needed 15 more pitches to retire Detroit in the eighth. The question is why put the extra wear and tear on Darvish with a six run lead? Apparently General Manager Jon Daniels was also upset about the move too, as he met with manager Ron Washington after the game to discuss.

Washington later explained that he feared using his bullpen, which had been taxed earlier in the week in Oakland. With one game going into extra innings, the bullpen had thrown 10-1/3 innings in the three game series with the Athletics. Tanner Scheppers in particular was unavailable, and Joe Nathan has been shaky of late. Certainly, another day of rest would not hurt Nathan. Washington also feared getting into his bullpen too much to start the series, as Detroit is one of if not the top offensive club in the league, and rookies Nick Tepesch and Justin Grimm were scheduled to start Friday’s and Saturday’s games. Tepesch as it turned out lasted just five on Friday, requiring four bullpen innings.

On the other side of the question, it is noteworthy that the pen actually has an extra arm this weekend, thanks to the injury to Alexi Ogando. Reliever Cory Burns was called up from AAA for the weekend, and Monday’s scheduled starter, Josh Lindblom, scheduled to start Monday’s will not be activated until the day of the game. Secondly, the bullpen has been pretty darn good so far this year. Their record is 8-1, they have converted 100% of their save opportunities, and going into play Friday, they had thrown the fourth fewest innings of any bullpen in the league. Obviously, something good is going on here, such that it seems illogical that the Rangers’ manager feared getting six instead of three outs from his pen with a six run lead.

There is a statistic to measure wear and tear from high pitch counts. The pitchers’ abuse calculation has point rating system as follows: one point for every pitch thrown from 101 to 110, two points for pitches 111 to 120, three points for pitches 121-130, etc. Under this formula, Darvish collected 60 abuse points Thursday night. He would have collected only 20 if he had not pitched the eighth inning. It is also noteworthy that Darvish had thrown 127 pitches just two starts earlier against Boston, acculmulating 51 abuse points.

Darvish was accustomed to high pitch counts in Japan, but the style of Japanese baseball is to have six man rotations. He did actually finish fourth last year in abuse points, so he has shown to be a work horse. The American League leader in abuse points in each of the past three seasons is Verlander, who is having an ordinary season for him with notably lessened velocity this season.

The name that inevitably comes up in this discussion is Mark Prior. Prior was a highly regarded pitching prospect that would have been the number one pick in the draft had he not been a client of Scott Boras. The Cubs brought him to the Majors in 2002 at the age of 21. A year later, he had a banner season with an 18-6 record in 30 starts (211.1 innings) with a 2.43 ERA. It was good enough to finish third in the Cy Young Award voting, and ninth in the National League MVP Award voting. His WAR was +7.4, which led all National League pitchers. His WHIP was 1.103, third in the league. At age 22, the Cubs thought they had an ace for a decade.

It was simply not to be. He in fact won just 18 more games in his career, which lasted three more years. He has not appeared in a Major League game since 2006, when he was 25 years old. In retrospect, the arm problems that led to his career’s demise were traced to the 2003 season. He was simply pitched too much. He reached 130 pitches in a game four times in 2003. By comparison, all pitchers in the Majors collectively reached 130 pitches four times last year.

For sure the fear of over using Darvish is real. Pushing Darvish’s pitch count to win an important game is one thing. Two starts ago, the game was tied at 3-3 when he completed his final inning to run his pitch count to 127. He was needed to win that game. Thursday night however, it’s highly questionable that he was needed to win the game as the Rangers held a six run lead.

It will be interesting to see how Ron Washington handles Darvish in his coming starts. Unfortunately, there is not an off day before his next assignment to allow an extra day of rest. Washington is publicly receiving support from Nolan Ryan, who amassed legendary pitch count games in his hay day. Tigers’ manager Jim Leyland came to Washington’s defense too. However, irrespective of the logic, this was a mistake. Washington has proven to be a good learner as a manager. Hopefully for Ranger fans, he’s learned some more this time around.

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AND THE ANSWER IS

BY: Richard W. Humphrey

The Rangers beat Boston Friday night 7-0 and again on Saturday 5-1 to improve their record to 19-11, the second best record in Ranger history after 30 games. The starting and winning pitchers were Derek Holland (2-2), who threw eight shutout innings on Friday and Alexi Ogando (3-2), who allowed one run in six innings. Their ERA’s are down to 2.74 (Holland) and 3.06 (Ogando), and they are the answer to one of the biggest question marks when the season began – the starting rotation. There is no question that Rangers’ GM Jon Daniels spent the winter seeking outside pitching help. They were outbid by the Dodgers for Zach Greinke and weren’t willing to match the prospect package the Royals offered Tampa Bay for James Shields. There was pressure in the local media to sign Kyle Lohse, perhaps the best free agent starting pitcher available last winter after Greinke. Daniels resisted and reluctantly decided to go with internal candidates. The season is little more than a month old and so far the starting pitching has been a major asset to the team’s success as they play this afternoon to become the second team in baseball to win 20 games.

When the season began, the thought was the Ranger rotation was solid at one and two (Yu Darvish and Matt Harrison). The fifth starter was up in the air. Nick Tepesch eventually won the spring training competition for the spot. The fifth starter was not inconsequential, but there are off days in April that could allow the Rangers to skip the spot in the rotation, and reports on Colby Lewis’s progress were positive, such that he was expected to be ready in May. The Rangers could easily limit the fifth starter to five or six starts if they got creative and a little lucky. The key then to the team’s success was Holland and Ogando, the three and four starters. It was a MUST that this pair turn in at least decent performances, or the Rangers’ season could get away in a hurry. The injury to Harrison after two starts only served to intensify the pressure.

Holland has been an enigma. First, he’s left-handed, always a plus. He has good stuff. Perhaps not good enough to be a true number one ace starter like Justin Verlander or Felix Hernandez; but stuff that is good enough for him to be close to that level. In the second half of 2011, Holland seemingly arrived. He was the Rangers’ best pitcher over the final months of 2011, finishing at 16-5 with a 3.95 ERA. With the team trailing two games to one in the World Series, he pitched the finest game in Rangers’ post season history. Last year only added to the enigma. There was the strange illness that caused him to lose a major amount of weight in June that led to a stay on the disabled list. After his return, he was inconsistent. He finished 12-7 in 29 starts, but his ERA ballooned to 4.67, obscene in the post-steroid era. His 12 wins were amassed with tremendous run support.

One thing fans appreciate about Holland is that he has made a home in the area. He is often seen during the off season at Dallas Mavericks games. He is always gracious about signing autographs for fans. He makes personal appearances. He has developed a reputation of being fun loving to put it nicely or to be a goof ball to put it un-nicely. He freely gave impersonations. The mustache that he grew last year only added to the goofyness.

This year, he has toned down the off the field antics, and it shows on the field. His record at 2-2 may not be spectacular, but he has pitched far better than his record as Ranger hitters have been stingy in providing run support this year. Holland has lasted seven innings in all but one of his six starts. Those five were all quality starts. He is giving every indication that he has become the solid starting pitcher the Rangers envisioned when they rushed him to the Majors in 2009.

Ogando is a different case. He started spring training in 2011 as the number nine or ten pitcher in the pecking order for the starting rotation. He had already proven to be a solid setup reliever in 2010, but requested and was granted the opportunity to be in the starting rotation. Late in spring training, the Rangers announced their starting five, and Ogando was not included. He was headed back to the bullpen; but on the very day of the announcement, one of the starting five – Tommy Hunter – was injured; and the rest as they say is history. Texas somewhat surprisingly elected to go with Ogando as Hunter’s replacement. The bottom line was that Ogando made the All-Star team and Hunter never started another game for the Rangers before being traded to Baltimore in July for bullpen pitching help.

Last year, the Rangers committed a rotation spot to Neftali Feliz, and it was Ogando, who was bumped from the rotation. Unquestionably, there were teams around the league that wondered what the Rangers were doing. Ogando seemed to run out of gas toward the end of the 2011 season, but he finished with 13 wins and very respectable 3.52 ERA. Those are incredible numbers for any pitcher in his first full year as a starter. It was certainly a reasonable expectation that he would build on that season and become an even better starting pitcher.

To his credit, Ogando did an outstanding job in the bullpen despite the disappointed of losing his spot in the rotation. Injuries piled up in June, and he again got a shot at the rotation when the team was in San Francisco. He was outstanding that day for three innings. In fact, he was perfect – nine up and nine down. In the top of the fourth, he was injured running out an infield hit and landed on the disabled list. When he returned to the active roster, he also returned to the bullpen for the balance of the season. However, at the end of the year, the Rangers announced that Ogando would be back in the 2013 rotation.

He certainly has his critics. ESPN radio’s Randy Galloway predicted before the season began that Ogando would be out of the rotation within a month. Well surprise Randy. A month has come and gone, and Ogando is still in the rotation, though he has struggled at times. The low point was his fourth start in Chicago, when the Cubs knocked him out of the game in the third inning. However, he has come back with quality starts in his last three appearances, and now has four in seven starts for the season.

The Rangers woke up Sunday morning with their staff ERA at 3.02, which was the best of all 30 Major League teams. At this point, Darvish is clearly the Rangers’ top starter. He is fast becoming recognized as one of the top five pitchers in the league. This was expected. The contributions of rookies Nicke Tepesch and Justin Grimm have been a pleasant surprise, perhaps even a bonus. Holland and Ogando have given this rotation the solidity it needed. The offense has struggled much of the season, but day in and day out, the Rangers get a good effort from their starting rotation that gives them a chance to win every game. It is also amazing that the Rangers’ rotation is posting astounding numbers with every starter being in their 20′s. Colby Lewis and Martin Perez, who was in the rotation at the end of 2012, are rehabbing from injuries and are expected to be available soon. Unless the injury bug bites, their return will present a dilemma for Ranger management. Having too many pitchers is a dilemma every team would like to have.

These are not the Texas Rangers of the old days that had big bopper hitters and no pitching. This Ranger team is in first place, a serious contender to win the division, and a team that can advance in the playoffs if they get there. That’s different from the 90′s with great hitting teams that won just one playoff game in three post season appearances. And the biggest difference is a solid starting rotation.

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THINKING ABOUT YU

BY: Richard W. Humphrey

The Rangers open a six game home stand this week with Yu Darvish scheduled to pitch the first and last games. He improved his record to 4-1 last Wednesday in Anaheim with a dominating performance over the Angels in a “must win” game for the Rangers. Terming a game as “must win” in April may sound like an overstatement, but in this case the “must win” tag is applicable. First, the Rangers and Angels either rightly or wrongly perceive themselves as the chief rivals to win the division. Certainly in the early part of the 21st century, the Angels dominated the division. Toward the end of the first decade, the Rangers did what they should have been doing all along – they discarded shortcutting the process to putting together a winning team (Andres Gallaraga, Ken Caminiti, Richard Hidalgo, etc.) and decided to build a farm system that supplied Major League ready players for the Major League team or for trade to acquire the pieces the Major League team needed to contend.

The change in approach paid off with World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011, as well as the opportunity to participate in last year’s playoffs as the Wild Card had they won the play-in game. The Angels have been left out in the cold for three straight years. In reality, the Athletics won the division with an up an coming young team, but the reality and perception may not match.

In any event, a division game is worth two non-divisional games. By winning, a team not only records a win, but tags a division rival with a loss. The saying goes that a team can’t win a pennant in April, but can lose it. That’s essentially what happened last season to the Angels, who won just four of the first 16 games, and never fully recovered. The Angels are in danger of duplicating their April fate this year, as they go into play Sunday with a 9-14 record and 6.5 games out of first place. The teams had split the first two games of the series to start last week, and Wednesday’s game would decide the series winner. It was a chance to add to the Angels’ woes.

Even more importantly to making Wednesday’s game a “must win” was the pitching matchup. Darvish has become the Rangers’ ace, the type of pitcher that steps up to win when the team needs a win. The Angels had scheduled Tommy Hanson, acquired from the Braves last winter, to start, but Hanson was not available after departing on bereavement leave. Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia opted to bypass veteran swingman Jerome Willams in favor of rookie Mike Roth, who a year ago was pitching for the University of South Carolina. He was in the big leagues despite having pitched fewer than 50 innings in professional baseball. Scioscia chose Roth as he is left-handed, and the Rangers have struggled this year against lefties.

Darvish stepped up with a devastating performance. Ranger announcer Steve Busby, a former Major League pitcher himself, said that Darvish had better “stuff” Wednesday night than he had in his near perfect game against Houston earlier this year. Darvish struck out 11 in six innings, allowing just five base runners on three hits and two walks. It was the 11th start in Darvish’s young career to reach a double digit strikeout total.

Scioscia’s theory in starting Roth appeared to work early, as he shutout the Rangers the first time through the batting order. That came to a halt in the fourth, as the roof caved in on Roth. He recorded just one out as the first of three Angel pitchers that saw action in the inning. The Rangers capped their rally with a Nelson Cruz home run with two aboard, his third home run in four games. When the smoke had cleared, the Rangers had plated nine runs, the biggest inning since 2007. 11-3 was the final score.

Darvish’s ERA dropped to 1.65, fourth in the American League. Going into play Sunday, he led the Major Leagues in strikeouts with 49 in five starts. In short, he is stepping up to be one of the top five pitchers in the American League. It was a huge gamble on the part of Rangers GM Jon Daniels to let C. J. Wilson walk in free agency two winters ago. Wilson had won 31 regular season games over the previous two seasons that had helped the Rangers get to the World Series both years. Daniels gambled that he could win the bidding in the posting process for Darvish, then sign him to a contract that would almost match Wilson’s taking price. The total package for Darvish ran well over $100 million; but at this point, Darvish is looking to be worth every penny, and Daniels is looking like a genius for procuring the true staff ace the Rangers have been seeking for years.

COCKTAIL CONVERSATION: Last Wedenesday’s game was a “get-away” game for both teams. The Rangers headed to Minneapolis, and the Angels went to Seattle afterward. Wednesday’s game time was the Angels’ call, and they chose to make the game a night game causing late night travel for the teams. The strategy seemed to backfire as the Angels lost two of the first three against the Mariners, while Texas won the first two in Minnesota before losing Saturday.

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WHERE ARE THE BATS?

BY: Richard W. Humphrey

The Rangers erupted for seven runs last night, the most they have scored in a game this year and just the second time they have done so. The scoring included six runs in the fifth inning, the biggest offensive inning of the season. Texas has now scored 61 runs of the season, well below the 94 they scored last year in the first 16 games. Prior to last night’s game, the Rangers had scored four or fewer runs in seven consecutive games and were 3-4 in that span. With 10% of the schedule in the books, the Texas pitching staff, both starters and relievers have been really good. At this point, the offense is perhaps the biggest question mark for the team.

Certainly, the newcomers are doing fine. Lance Berkman is batting .385 with nine RBI’s, despite failing to have enough at-bats to officially qualify as a league leader after sitting out the Cubs’ series this week. A. J. Pierzynski is solid at .286. Both have a pair of home runs, second on the team to Ian Kinsler’s five. Pierzynski in particular is getting more playing time over Geovany Soto because his bat is needed in the lineup.

There are strugglers though. Mitch Moreland is hitting .163 with just four RBI’s. Leonys Martin is under .200 too at .192. He hasn’t driven in a run yet this season, and has scored just four. In fact, Craig Gentry drove in a run Friday night, the first of the year for a Ranger center fielder. Elvis Andrus is just barely over the Mendoza line at .206. Batting second, his most important stat is on base percentage, as he needs to be on base for the middle of the order to drive him in. His is a pitiful .273. It’s clearly a less powerful team. The Rangers as a team have hit 16 home runs, a pace that projects to 162 to for the season. They hit 200 last year.

The first reason for the offensive drought is the weather. It was cold in Seattle last weekend and colder in Chicago this week. The official start time temperature at Friday’s game was 62 degrees, the highest it has been since April 9 in Arlington. It’s undeniable that the cold retards offense. This may be a major reason the Rangers’ offense is languishing, but it is not necessarily good news. The Rangers’ pitching has been somewhere between good and spectacular. Hopefully, the pitchers are pitching well, not simply recording good numbers becaus the weather is cold.

This team almost always hits better at home. Last night’s explosion came at home after struggling on the road. More games have been played on the road so far this year, so that’s a part of the problem. That will eventually even out, but not soon as seven of the next nine games are on the road. In any event, this team is not the offensive unit that Ranger fans have become accustomed to in recent years.

The answer may ultimately be top prospect Jurickson Profar. It’s possible, though not likely that Profar will get his feet on the ground at AAA Round Rock and be summoned to give the batting order a spark later in the season. Where to play him is really in question, barring an injury. Andrus and Kinsler are now signed to long term contracts, and they are very good at their positions. If Profar is to help this year, it will more likely be as part of a trade to land a major middle of the order hitter for this lineup. GM Jon Daniels simply has to be considering moving Profar more than ever before. This is a good team if it scores enough runs. Profar is still a prospect, not a proven commodity. His trade value may never be higher.

In 2010, the Rangers sent out highly touted prospect Justin Smoak as the major return to Seattle in the trade that landed Cliff Lee. Lee proved to be the key to winning two playoff series to reach the World Series. Profar might be this year’s Justin Smoak.

COCKTAIL CONVERSATION: The Rangers followed the trend by playing “Sweet Caroline” between innings at last night’s game. The Neil Diamond classic is the theme song of the Boston Red Sox, and the Rangers played the tune to honor the heroics and remember the lost lives this week in Boston. Interestingly, it was the Red Sox hated rivals, the New York Yankees that started the trend last Tuesday night. Also, the first Red Sox home game since the bombs went off near last Monday’s Boston Marathon finish line was played this Saturday afternoon. Neil Diamond was there in person to sing “Sweet Caroline”.

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ON JOSH AND THE ANGELS

BY: Richard W. Humphrey

Josh Hamilton made his return to Arlington as a member of the Angels last weekend, and he was as much of the story as the games themselves. He was booed loudly on Friday, boos that turned to sarcastic cheers when he struck out in his first at bat and looked ugly doing it. After the game, Josh was obviously surprised at the crowd reaction. He even went so far as to say the crowd noise was louder than any playoff game in which he had participated. A stretch to say the least.

Unfortunately, the fans’ anger spilled over to Josh’s wife and kids, who were seated in the stands Friday. Security was called. It was a deplorable incident for sure that doesn’t speak well for Ranger fans. Josh relocated them into a suite for Saturday’s and Sunday’s games, which is where they should have been Friday.

The booing continued over the weekend. Josh was terrible at the plate, getting just three hits in 13 at bats. He suffered the indignity of having Albert Pujols intentionally walked three times to get Josh to the plate in Saturday’s game. He struck out twice and filed out softly in those three at bats making the Rangers’ strategy look good. All three hits came on Sunday, and Josh’s batting average stood at .160 when he left town. As this weekend approached, Josh had struck out 13 times in nine games.

It was naive on Josh’s part to fail to anticipate the fans’ reaction. He was booed in his last 2012 Ranger game, the season ending loss to Baltimore in the Wild Card play-in game, Hamilton was 0-4 that night, including two strike outs and hitting into a double play. He saw exactly eight pitches on the evening, the bare minimum for four at bats with two strikeouts. He further angered fans with derogatory comments about Dallas and Ranger fans, saying in an interview with Gina Miller on channel 11 that Dallas was not a baseball town.

As the series approached, Josh was more complimentary of the Rangers and his five years in the area. During the player introductions prior to Friday’s opener, he politely clapped for his former teammates as they were introduced and traded a salute with Ron Washington. All the niceness was gone after Friday’s game. He angrily said he wasn’t taking back anything he said about Dallas not being a baseball town.

During Josh’s five years in Texas, the Rangers worked diligently to create an environment in which Josh could overcome his past substance abuse problems to succeed on the field. Succeed he did, as he made five All-Star teams, won an American League MVP Award, and twice played in the World Series. With the severity of those abuse problems, it always made more sense for Josh to remain with the Rangers and the environment they created that allowed him to succeed on the field. He was the one that chose to take more money and play elsewhere. The season is less than two weeks old, surly not enough games played to make any strong judgements. At this point though, Josh’s choice to become an Angel is looking bad for him, as he struggles to meet the expectations that come with a nine digit guaranteed contract.

Josh however is not the only Angel player that is struggling. They have won just two of nine games to start the season and are looking up in the standings at the woeful Houston Astros. Last Tuesday’s home opener, which the Angels lost, did not sell out. Southern California fans have picked up where Ranger fans left off – they are already booing Angel players.

It’s a team that is already in trouble. The pitching staff was questionable for beginners with probably the fourth best rotation in the division when the season began. Now Jerod Weaver is out for at least a month and probably longer with an injury. The bullpen has been awful. In a move that looks like a push of the panic button, manager Mike Scioscia called a team meeting this week, and the team responded with another loss. Half the starting infield, Albert Callaspo and Eric Aybar are nursing injuries that could lead to stints on the disabled list. With a heart of the batting order that includes Josh, Pujols, Mike Trout and Mark Trumbo, this team will score a lot of runs; but they led the Majors in runs scored last year and didn’t make the playoffs.

Owner Arte Moreno gets high marks for creating an outstanding fan experience at the ballpark at a reasonable price. His team has ruled the division for the early part of the 21st century until the upstart Rangers finally put together a farm system that spits out Major League players like sunflower seeds. He has to be disappointed in his team on the field after committing more than $450 million to three free agents the past two winters.

A year ago, he hired Jerry DiPoto as his new general manager. DiPoto immediately sought to take back power and influence from Scioscia, which had grown with his on the field success. There was speculation late last season that one or even both would be ousted after 2012′s disappointment. Moreno put that speculation to rest when he proclaimed that both would return this season. Now they are clashing, and the clashes are taking their toll on the field. It’s a regrettable situation for the Angels, but one that Moreno chose. He like Josh will have to live with the consequences of his decision.

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ON ELVIS

BY: Richard W. Humphrey

The Rangers’ lackluster performance last night in the season opener in Houston was extremely disappointing, but the day may go down as one of the better ones in Ranger history. Texas lost 8-2 to the woeful Astros, as Matt Harrison fell apart after three strong innings allowing a pair of runs in each of the fourth, fifth and sixth innings. Rick Ankiel sealed the Astros’ win with a pinch hit home run with two runners aboard, hit off Derek Lowe after Harrison departed. Ankiel and Lowe were making their debuts with Houston and Texas.

One of the big worries about this Ranger team is its ability to score runs with the departures of Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli and Michael Young. Last night’s performance did nothing to dispel the fear, as the Rangers managed just six hits off Bud Norris and Erik Bedard, neither of which will be mistaken for Cy Young candidates. None of the six hits went for extra bases.

The day turned positive shortly after the game ended as reports emerged that the Rangers were close to reaching agreement with Elvis Andrus to an eight year, $120 million extension, an average annual value of $15 million. It has subsequently been clarified that the agreement includes an opt out clause for Andrus halfway through the extension, such that the Rangers will have contractural control of him through the 2018 season, and perhaps even longer if the opt out is not exercised.

Andrus is 24 years old and in his fifth season as the Rangers’ starting shortstop. He has twice made the All-Star team already, and this contract extension will place him fourth among shortstops in terms of average annual salary. Derek Jeter, Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzski are the three with higher salaries.

The contract is surprising from a lot of standpoints. Andrus switched his agency to Scott Boras a couple of years ago. Boras is an agent that always tries and usually gets top dollar for his clients. In order to achieve the maximum price tag, his clients virtually never sign extensions prior to becoming free agents, and rarely re-sign with their former team when they do become free agents. Andrus switching the agency was assumed by many to mean that he would be looking for top dollar and probably would not re-sign with Texas.

The dollar amount of this contract is somewhat surprising too. Reyes is the comparable contract that gets tossed around in consideration of Andrus. Reyes signed prior to the 2012 season for more than $17 million per year, $2 million more than the average annual value of Andrus’s contract. Reyes is certainly a better offensive player than Andrus, but with three years of salary inflation prior to Andrus becoming eligible for free agency, the difference should be covered.

The contract is also surprising from the Rangers’ standpoint. The team’s top minor league prospect is Jurickson Profar, who is considered by many to be the top minor league prospect in baseball. Profar is a middle infielder that offensively projects to ultimately have more power than Andrus, and projects to be as good defensively if not better. The question for the team then became did they want to pay Andrus $15 million in 2015, when they would still have Profar two years away from arbitration and five years away from free agency. They could pay Profar materially less money, freeing up payroll to shore up other areas of the team.

One ramification of the signing is Profar’s fate. With Andrus in the fold, Profar becomes the Rangers’ second baseman of the future. That leaves Ian Kinsler most likely moving to a different position next season to make room for Profar.

Andrus becomes the third high profile player to sign a contract extension for more than $100 million in the past week. He joins Detroit’s Justin Verlander and San Francisco’s Buster Posey. There seems to be a trend afoot here of players signing extensions rather than going to free agency. Perhaps players are leaving money on the table; but then again, how much does a player really need. Once the offer reaches nine digits, is it really worth the risk to wait on free agency? These are guaranteed contracts, and by signing now, Andrus has taken the injury risk for this season and next out of the equation. Also for all anyone really knows, this contract offer may be the best Andrus would ever get.

The series with Houston was originally scheduled for today, tomorrow and Wednesday. ESPN later chose the game for their Sunday night season opener, so the Rangers are off today. The move allows them to utilize just four starting pitchers over the first eight games. With rookie Nick Tepesch winning out the competion for the fifth starter slot, the move of today’s scheduled game to last night allows the Rangers to carry an extra position player on the roster, which is outfielder Julio Borbon. A roster move will have to be made prior to the April 9 game against Tampa Bay to create a roster spot for Tepesch. For sure the Rangers will continue the series with the Astros content that the shortstop position has been settled for years to come.

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A HOT SEAT?

BY: Richard W. Humphrey

Lost in the recent saga about Nolan Ryan’s continued role with the Rangers is consideration of Ron Washington’s status as manager of the Rangers. One school of thought has Washington on safe ground no matter what happens this season. Certainly, the last three years have been the best three year stretch in Ranger history, and that should buy enough job security to survive a year, which in reality will be a rebuilding season.

However, there is an undercurrent of discord between Washington and his general manager Jon Daniels. Washington was of course Daniels’ hire, and Daniels stood behind him during some awful managerial times in his first couple of years. When Ryan took over as team President, many assumed that Washington for sure was on thin ice as far as keeping his job, and perhaps Daniels too. Ryan to his credit was not quick to pull the trigger. He has a laid back management approach and allowed Washington and Daniels time to prove themselves, which they did.

Despite the good will accrued from two World Series appearances in particular, Washington could actually be on the managerial hot seat. First, there is last year’s season ending collapse, as the Rangers held the best record in the American League for most of the second half of the season, yet was not among the final eight playoff teams once the Wild Card play-in games were completed. They lost six of their final seven games, failing to win the division after holding a five game lead with nine games to play. It was a collapse of monumental proportions, and Washington deserves a heavy helping of blame.

At the July 31 trade deadline, Daniels provided Mike Olt from AA Frisco to be the main power bat and corner infielder off the bench. He later added the number one minor league prospect in baseball- Jurickson Profar to be the backup middle infielder. Washington simply refused to play them. Olt batted just 33 times, while Profar got a mere 17. In the end, Washington was criticized for failing to rest his veterans, who were worn out. The biggest problem during the team’s late season collapse was the offense. Michael Young and Ian Kinsler were two of many that looked exhausted and simply did not hit in the season’s final weeks. There have been rumors that Daniels frequently met with Washington prior to games to urge him to make lineup changes that involved resting veterans, but Washington staunchly refused; and thus it seems possible that Daniels may not be fully committed to Washington going forward.

Washington has always fancied himself a “players’ manager”. In short, there don’t appear to be a lot of rules. At times it appears the inmates are running the asylum. One example was late last year when Josh Hamilton left the team on a September road trip with a flimsy excuse about eye problems. It did not set well with some in management and with many on the team. Washington certainly backed his player – he had no choice – but he shared some of the blame as he created an atmosphere in which Hamilton felt no responsiblity to give his all at a critical time of the season when others, such as Adrian Beltre, were playing through tremendous pain.

The paradox at this point is that Nolan Ryan may be a bigger proponent of Washington’s than Daniels. Daniels has shown that he is not bashful about making personnel moves, and he may be the one jumping off Washinton’s band wagon. With six managerial seasons under his belt, Washington is clearly a better manager now than when he started. On a personal note, I have never seen a manager grow so much into the job. However, it is obvious that he much prefers veterans to young players. Many of his critics in the early days pointed this out as a reason why Washington was the wrong man for the job. The team was in a youth movement in 2007 and 2008, yet he continued to push for veteran players such as Ben Broussard, Kris Benson and Jason Jennings.

In acutality, Elvis Andrus is the only position player the Rangers have brought to the Majors during Washington’s tenure that has become a top player. Jerrod Saltalamacchia was the most “Major League ready” player the team received in the Mark Teixeira trade; yet he struggled under Washington, and the team finally gave up on him, trading him to the Red Sox. Salty has blossomed in Boston to become a functional Major League catcher, while the Rangers have sought expensive veterans Benji Molina, Matt Treanor, Yorvit Torrealba, Mike Napoli, Geovany Soto, and now A. J. Pierzynski to man the position.

The young players that the Rangers’ farm system graduated to the Majors that have helped the team achieve their success in the past three seasons have by and large been pitchers – Matt Harrison, Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, Neftali Feliz, and Robbie Ross; just to name a few. Pitching coach Mike Maddux, not Washington, is credited with the player development in the pitching area.

At this point, the Rangers are in another rebuilding mode. Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry appear to be a center field platoon. Profar and Olt will likely be with the team later in the season and expected to contribute when they arrive. Even more young pitchers such as Robbie Ross, Tanner Scheppers, Martin Perez and Nick Tepesch may well become key members of the pitching staff. With the team in the mode of bringing along young players, the question now looms as to whether Washington is the right man for the job of managing the Texas Rangers.

It is unlikely that Washington loses his job this season. However, with more than 70 home runs and 250 RBI’s gone with the losses of Josh Hamilton, Michael Young and Mike Napoli; the Rangers could well struggle. The Las Vegas over/under number for Ranger wins this season is only 87. This team has the talent to contend and even win the division if they get the breaks. It also has the potential to finish third or fourth in the division and even win fewer games than they lose if the team doesn’t get those breaks. There is no question that Washington will be in hot water if there is a sub-.500 finish.

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